Do Election Years Have an Effect on October Mortgage Rates?

Do Election Years Have an Effect on October Mortgage Rates? Mortgage rates have been highly predictable in the October month of prior presidential election years. Typically rates always took a stand-still where they were at while the industry sort of paused until the results of voting came in. It has been a recurring theme leading up to the last two elections.

What’s going on in October Mortgage Rates?

In the year 2016 the traditional 30-year fixed mortgage showed little interest rate movement only changing from 3.42% to 3.52% according to a weekly survey done by Freddie Mac. Shortly after the election results came through the rate climbed significantly to an average of 4.32% in the last week of December 2016.

Going back to the election year of 2012, a traditional 30-year mortgage hovered from 3.36% to 3.41% says the Freddie Mac survey. After the re-election of the current president, rates abruptly dropped and then came back up to just under what they were in October at 3.35% in the last week of December.

This year, October began with negative news of the current president becoming ill and the immediate aftermath brought a dip in the stock market. This all caused bond yields to fall and then rise again, and yet mortgage rates were still largely unchanged. Similar things occurred in October of 2016, with big financial market news that did little to impact the mortgage market.

Elections before the last two previous ones showed less defined trends. October of the election year 2008 is in a category of its own because the year had a huge financial crisis that was shown through huge changes in mortgage rates. In October of 2004, a 30-year fixed rate went in an up and down pattern measuring at a high of 5.82% and a low of 5.64%.

Way back in the year 2000 that rate hardly budged in the first three weeks of October and fell in the last week then saw a plummet while Florida ballots were being recounted. Freddie Mac showed the 30-year fixed average rate at 7.68% on October 27th while the year ended at just 7.13%.

Even though October mortgage rates do not typically move much in election years, prior to October mortgage rates were historically low and steadily getting lower. September of 2020 saw rates as low as 2.98% which was a significant drop of over 1% from the year prior. The average rate of September 2019 came in at 4.04%.

Though October election rates do not typically budge they are at great numbers and many home buyers as well as homeowners looking to refinance can greatly benefit from them.

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